After a year on the platform, I have about 250 followers. Some people manage that in 3 months, maybe less. It was 4 months before my accumulated earnings hit $10. Only once since then have I earned more than $10 in a single month.
There's one very clear reason for that: I'm NOT a consistent writer. I joined Medium first as a reader. It was about a week later that I learned about the possibility of earning from writing. My first month I earned one cent, and I was fine with that. It meant at least one person read something I wrote. That's always been good enough for me.
I definitely won't be leaving. I just renewed my paid subscription. I'd much rather write here than on a personal blog. If Medium crashed and burned, I'd likely take that as a sign that. I'm not meant to do online writing anymore. I make regular backups of my Medium stuff and I don't know what I'd do with it.
Blogging is far more work than I'm interested in. I might try Vocal or something else that might have come along by then, but only to replace Medium if it died.
The fact that Medium shifts and changes tells me it's alive, it's healthy and it's not going away anytime soon.
I've always been square -- and I'll be there.